I went to a great party tonight. It was a graduation party for an old friend from high school (and a bit in college). The thing that made it a hit, though, was the live music. People brought guitars, a banjo, bass guitar, upright bass, harmonicas, shakers, and voices. People would start playing a song and whoever knew the lyrics would sing aloud.
I only wish I were musical in some way. I don't play any instruments and I have no rhythm for even shakers. I can sing (poorly and never in public), but I know no lyrics. It makes me want to keep a guitar in the house, though, so other people can play when they come over. It'd be kind of like how I keep alcohol strictly for the enjoyment of others.
It also got me thinking about how seldom this happens anymore. I can't personally attest to the good ol' days, but the old movies often show impromptu musical fun at neighborhood gatherings. Really, neighborhood gatherings have also stopped, for the most part - maybe an occasional block party if you happen to live on a social block. I'm going to ask my brother if he has a spare guitar he'd like to leave at my place. Perhaps we can revive this tradition.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Dining Room Set
I went to Nebraska Furniture Mart with my mother and my little brother, Jake. I decided to take advantage of their 30 months of 0% interest financing and fill up my dining room, finally. We walked the floor for about an hour with a sales lady before setting in on 4 sets. They weren't all next to each other, so it was a long process of taking a mental picture of one and then running over to compare it to another. I'm sure that sales lady loved us.
I found pictures of things online!
My table and china hutch thing!
My sidebar/buffet/server! (The chair shown in this picture is like mine - the wooden back.)
It's exciting, most definitely. And surprisingly expensive. I had priced tables before, but I hadn't counted on having to buy two extra chairs for when the leaf is in (always for a lazy bum like myself), a sidebar/buffet/server, and a china hutch thing. I understand that it's necessary to fill the room with something, and that these things probably have an actual purpose, but I hadn't considered them until my style consultant (my mother) said I needed them.
I found pictures of things online!
My table and china hutch thing!
My sidebar/buffet/server! (The chair shown in this picture is like mine - the wooden back.)
It's exciting, most definitely. And surprisingly expensive. I had priced tables before, but I hadn't counted on having to buy two extra chairs for when the leaf is in (always for a lazy bum like myself), a sidebar/buffet/server, and a china hutch thing. I understand that it's necessary to fill the room with something, and that these things probably have an actual purpose, but I hadn't considered them until my style consultant (my mother) said I needed them.
Options Update: Savient (SVNT) (again)
Whatever news Savient (SVNT) released on Thursday ended up being good news. I only skimmed the release and saw something about gout. Gout didn't seem to be a big deal in the episode of House M.D. that it played a role in. Oh well, the important thing is that SVNT is up to $18.90, which is well above the $12.50 it needs to be at in order for my shares to be called away and for me to be done with this. I don't particularly like being invested in a company I know nothing about. But for a 25% return in a few weeks, I'm willing to make an exception every so often.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Options Update: Savient (SVNT)
So, it's been awhile since I've updated things on the financial side. I realize it's not anything people read in detail, but tonight I have nothing else I can write about.
So, if anyone happened to check up on Hythiam (HYTM), they'll quickly realize that it is far below my $5.80 break-even price. Yes, I seem to be losing money on that. But, this hasn't stopped me from experimenting with highly volatile options writing. Enter Savient, another small pharmaceuticals company. They apparently have some data coming out sometime in December, but I have no idea when. No matter when the data comes out, though, it is causing the implied volatility to be in the 220% range, which is ridiculously high. I bought 300 shares at $12.10 a couple weeks ago and was able to sell 3 covered call options for $2.60 each. Thus, I made roughly 21% for the month of December.
It is possible that whatever news is coming out will be negative and the underlying stock price will plummet, but there is more call interest than put interest, and I do have 20% downside protection. Plus, the stock price has reached $15.40 today, so any plummet starts from a profitable position. I see it as much more likely that my shares will be called away at $12.50 and I will be done with the matter. Of course, now that I've said that, the exact opposite will happen, as with Hythiam. I should learn to keep my fingers from typing such things. Well, wish me luck.
So, if anyone happened to check up on Hythiam (HYTM), they'll quickly realize that it is far below my $5.80 break-even price. Yes, I seem to be losing money on that. But, this hasn't stopped me from experimenting with highly volatile options writing. Enter Savient, another small pharmaceuticals company. They apparently have some data coming out sometime in December, but I have no idea when. No matter when the data comes out, though, it is causing the implied volatility to be in the 220% range, which is ridiculously high. I bought 300 shares at $12.10 a couple weeks ago and was able to sell 3 covered call options for $2.60 each. Thus, I made roughly 21% for the month of December.
It is possible that whatever news is coming out will be negative and the underlying stock price will plummet, but there is more call interest than put interest, and I do have 20% downside protection. Plus, the stock price has reached $15.40 today, so any plummet starts from a profitable position. I see it as much more likely that my shares will be called away at $12.50 and I will be done with the matter. Of course, now that I've said that, the exact opposite will happen, as with Hythiam. I should learn to keep my fingers from typing such things. Well, wish me luck.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
New Cat
Monday, November 19, turned out to be a fairly eventful day. It all started when my brother, Brian, called about 10am letting me know that he was in the neighborhood tutoring math with Aimee and they'd be happy to stop by in about an hour, if that was alright. For some reason, this didn't strike me as particularly odd, so I naturally agreed.
About an hour later, they arrive at my front door. When I open it, Aimee greets me with "We brought you an Apple," while handing me a gray kitten. She was extremely tiny, especially given that she was supposed to be about 3 and a half months old. The vet said she was probably the runt and had her food stolen, but that it shouldn't affect her overall development much. She has definitely added some weight, and so looks more normal. She no longer smells like a ferret, but still is a smelly cat.
Here are Fiona and Apple together.
Apple is very cuddly and likes to rub her face on people's faces, which is cute. However, she hasn't learned how to jump, so she claws her way up things, including legs, which is painful. She's learning, though, and is a very cute cat regardless.
About an hour later, they arrive at my front door. When I open it, Aimee greets me with "We brought you an Apple," while handing me a gray kitten. She was extremely tiny, especially given that she was supposed to be about 3 and a half months old. The vet said she was probably the runt and had her food stolen, but that it shouldn't affect her overall development much. She has definitely added some weight, and so looks more normal. She no longer smells like a ferret, but still is a smelly cat.
Here are Fiona and Apple together.Apple is very cuddly and likes to rub her face on people's faces, which is cute. However, she hasn't learned how to jump, so she claws her way up things, including legs, which is painful. She's learning, though, and is a very cute cat regardless.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Cat Toy - Laser
I ate at my parents' house for dinner this evening. My brother needed to get a mouse in order to feed his snake, so we went to the pet store. While we were there, I figured I'd get a cheap $2.99 laser pointer pet toy. When I finally got home, I unpackaged it and put in the included batteries. Fiona immediately chased after it and was very exited. Mouse was initially interested, but never excited about it, and quickly lost interest in favor of a crazy-hyper Fiona and the threat presented therein.
Fiona pounced and scrambled after the laser all the way upstairs and around my room. When I shut it off, she began breathing very deeply. I first thought I had run the wind out of her, but then noticed she had her head low to the ground and was breathing into corners and dark places. She was intent on finding the mysterious shiny thing! I indulged her for another minute or so, but then had to get down to installing Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance.
Fiona, however, still had nothing better to do. She began sniffing around again, pawing at everything it could be under or behind. She then began whining very loudly in addition. She has finally calmed down, but I'm not sure whether I should bring the laser back out. She loves chasing it, but it upsets her so much when it's gone. And now she's back to whining.
Fiona pounced and scrambled after the laser all the way upstairs and around my room. When I shut it off, she began breathing very deeply. I first thought I had run the wind out of her, but then noticed she had her head low to the ground and was breathing into corners and dark places. She was intent on finding the mysterious shiny thing! I indulged her for another minute or so, but then had to get down to installing Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance.
Fiona, however, still had nothing better to do. She began sniffing around again, pawing at everything it could be under or behind. She then began whining very loudly in addition. She has finally calmed down, but I'm not sure whether I should bring the laser back out. She loves chasing it, but it upsets her so much when it's gone. And now she's back to whining.
Small Company Earnings
HYTM was listed as releasing it's earnings yesterday, November 5. Instead, their expected earnings release date was pushed back until November 12. I think this is a phenomenon pretty much unique to small companies. I can't imagine Google, IBM, or Apple getting away with a week's delay in releasing financial information.
In fact, HYTM hasn't really gotten away with it. The past couple of days have seen HYTM drop down to $4.71 so far. Incidentally, this puts me fairly deep in the red. We'll just have to see what the implied volatility does after earnings. It may still be worth holding on to if I can still get >5% a month in options premiums. Or perhaps earnings will beat analyst estimates and I'll get my shares called away after all.
In other news, Garmin (GRMN) is down below $100 again. I think if I had $10,000 or multiples thereof, I would buy some GRMN shares and write more out of the money covered calls. Garmin seems to be down on fears of a TeleAtlas bidding war with TomTom (TOM2.as). However, I see this as both a good move and temporary. Garmin has about $1B cash on hand and is worth >$20B, while TomTom probably has less on hand and is worth ~$6.3B.
Garmin used to be in a position of having TeleAtlas in the hands of TomTom and Navteq in the hands of Nokia, meaning they might face an increase in mapping costs. Garmin has either put TomTom in this position, or forced them to go deeper in debt by upping the price of TeleAtlas. If Garmin gets stuck buying the company, they at least have the advantage of being able to afford it, and they have a longer history of acquisitions, which implies to me a better ability to integrate TeleAtlas. It will be interesting to see how this develops. Unfortunately, I'll be watching from the sidelines.
In fact, HYTM hasn't really gotten away with it. The past couple of days have seen HYTM drop down to $4.71 so far. Incidentally, this puts me fairly deep in the red. We'll just have to see what the implied volatility does after earnings. It may still be worth holding on to if I can still get >5% a month in options premiums. Or perhaps earnings will beat analyst estimates and I'll get my shares called away after all.
In other news, Garmin (GRMN) is down below $100 again. I think if I had $10,000 or multiples thereof, I would buy some GRMN shares and write more out of the money covered calls. Garmin seems to be down on fears of a TeleAtlas bidding war with TomTom (TOM2.as). However, I see this as both a good move and temporary. Garmin has about $1B cash on hand and is worth >$20B, while TomTom probably has less on hand and is worth ~$6.3B.
Garmin used to be in a position of having TeleAtlas in the hands of TomTom and Navteq in the hands of Nokia, meaning they might face an increase in mapping costs. Garmin has either put TomTom in this position, or forced them to go deeper in debt by upping the price of TeleAtlas. If Garmin gets stuck buying the company, they at least have the advantage of being able to afford it, and they have a longer history of acquisitions, which implies to me a better ability to integrate TeleAtlas. It will be interesting to see how this develops. Unfortunately, I'll be watching from the sidelines.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Implied Volatility (updated)
I've been continuing my research into options strategies. Earnings season is here again, which always causes a spike in implied volatility. GRMN released it's earnings this morning. Yesterday, the implied volatility of at the money calls were in the 80s and 90s. Today, they are in the 60s. I suspect they will continue to fall for a couple more days.
Implied volatility is the free-market version of statistical volatility. SI indicates how much the underlying stock actually fluctuates, while VI indicates how much people expect it to move. What's this mean for options? Before major events, like earnings releases, IV spikes, as do options prices. Thus, much of the movement people expect is already priced into the option. In general, right before earnings is a bad time to buy options. However, if you own shares in the underlying stock, writing covered call options is very good, or if you have cash on hand, you can make a quick 2-4% by writing cash secured puts.
Anyway, in my research, I found a great site for finding highly volatile options: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/filters/implied_vol_filter.aspx
Here, you can specify a minimum stock price, minimum open interest, and a % out of money maximum something that I don't understand. I don't know exactly what all the filters in the Power Tools tab do, this one included, but I like sorting by the 'Call Implied' column. Unfortunately, the filter is confused by recently split stocks, where a $10 stock with a $20 strike will trade at $2 (the $20 strike option was written before the split, and the options trading house hasn't fully updated everything), so it looks like the $20 strike is trading abnormally high, when in actuality, you can't really trade it. It will also show a lot of $5 stocks with a $7.50 strike trading at $0.10. This isn't a high enough price to make much money writing options, sadly. To avoid the latter problem, I like to specify a minimum stock price of $6. Higher priced stocks have closer strike prices.
Using the sorted 'Call Implied' column, though, I've found HYTM. I don't quite know what to make of it, yet, but it's a $6.50 stock with a $7.50 November 2007 call option price of about $0.70. That means people are willing to pay a 10% premium betting on a 15% move in one month. Admittedly, HYTM's earnings is on November 5, so I don't know what the long-term IV is like. This may be a stock only worth writing options against this one time. Also, Google Finance's stock page for HYTM shows a news story where the state of Washington kicked out HYTM's drug rehabilitation cocktail because it didn't work. Collecting a 10% premium isn't a good idea if the underlying company goes broke.
Either way, I went ahead and bought 1200 shares and wrote 12 call options for $6.45 and $0.65, respectively. After commissions, I made about 9.7%, which I will fully realize on November 17. Then I'll be able to see how much a regular month's option is worth. I may end up bailing out after that time. Or, I may get my shares called away at $7.50, giving me a total profit of ~25%, instead. I can live with that.
Updated at 3:00pm
HYTM announced a double blind study, so the stock price shot up to $7.30 (+0.85 over purchase price), and DXUKU (Nov $7.5 calls) are now at $1.10. So, I missed out on some options premium profit, but at this rate, it's looking like that 25% profit on November 17 will be happening. I can still live with that.
Implied volatility is the free-market version of statistical volatility. SI indicates how much the underlying stock actually fluctuates, while VI indicates how much people expect it to move. What's this mean for options? Before major events, like earnings releases, IV spikes, as do options prices. Thus, much of the movement people expect is already priced into the option. In general, right before earnings is a bad time to buy options. However, if you own shares in the underlying stock, writing covered call options is very good, or if you have cash on hand, you can make a quick 2-4% by writing cash secured puts.
Anyway, in my research, I found a great site for finding highly volatile options: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/filters/implied_vol_filter.aspx
Here, you can specify a minimum stock price, minimum open interest, and a % out of money maximum something that I don't understand. I don't know exactly what all the filters in the Power Tools tab do, this one included, but I like sorting by the 'Call Implied' column. Unfortunately, the filter is confused by recently split stocks, where a $10 stock with a $20 strike will trade at $2 (the $20 strike option was written before the split, and the options trading house hasn't fully updated everything), so it looks like the $20 strike is trading abnormally high, when in actuality, you can't really trade it. It will also show a lot of $5 stocks with a $7.50 strike trading at $0.10. This isn't a high enough price to make much money writing options, sadly. To avoid the latter problem, I like to specify a minimum stock price of $6. Higher priced stocks have closer strike prices.
Using the sorted 'Call Implied' column, though, I've found HYTM. I don't quite know what to make of it, yet, but it's a $6.50 stock with a $7.50 November 2007 call option price of about $0.70. That means people are willing to pay a 10% premium betting on a 15% move in one month. Admittedly, HYTM's earnings is on November 5, so I don't know what the long-term IV is like. This may be a stock only worth writing options against this one time. Also, Google Finance's stock page for HYTM shows a news story where the state of Washington kicked out HYTM's drug rehabilitation cocktail because it didn't work. Collecting a 10% premium isn't a good idea if the underlying company goes broke.
Either way, I went ahead and bought 1200 shares and wrote 12 call options for $6.45 and $0.65, respectively. After commissions, I made about 9.7%, which I will fully realize on November 17. Then I'll be able to see how much a regular month's option is worth. I may end up bailing out after that time. Or, I may get my shares called away at $7.50, giving me a total profit of ~25%, instead. I can live with that.
Updated at 3:00pm
HYTM announced a double blind study, so the stock price shot up to $7.30 (+0.85 over purchase price), and DXUKU (Nov $7.5 calls) are now at $1.10. So, I missed out on some options premium profit, but at this rate, it's looking like that 25% profit on November 17 will be happening. I can still live with that.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
In Honor of J
J, who commented on my last post, has noticed that people in big cities are not polite. As an example, she mentioned holding doors open and thanking others for doing so. It generally doesn't happen in big cities.
Since then, I've been observing behavior between strangers closely for politeness. Here are my observations, in order of precedence:
Since then, I've been observing behavior between strangers closely for politeness. Here are my observations, in order of precedence:
- Black people are exceptionally polite when white people hold doors open for them. White people are quiet when the reverse is true. Reasons for this discrepancy will be left to the comments.
- There appears to be a correlation between politeness and kilometers from a city's center. Suburban strangers say thank you almost always, while those in the city are usually quiet.
- Gender roles are still expected: Women holding the door for men will be taken advantage of grudgingly and silently. Men holding the door for men will be taken advantage of with an accompanying strange look (and silence).
- Men hold doors more often; women say thank you more often. When a man and a woman encounter a door, the male is most likely to hold it open for the woman. The woman will almost always say thank you. A man will hurry through doors held open by anyone, often at the expense of a proper thank you. However, it should be noted that men often exchange nods of acknowledgment/thanks which cannot always be reliably observed.
- Finally, suburban men are the most likely to hold doors open for as long as people flow by. Perhaps city dwellers have learned when to give up looking for the end of the line and sneak by early to find their groups.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Republican Debate
The past couple weeks have been extremely busy with the U.S. Open tennis tournament. That's over, sadly, but it means I have some more time on my hands now that I'm not constantly watching. And that means I might update a bit more often.
Like tonight, while I'm watching the New Hampshire Republican Debate I missed earlier. It's a bit sad at times, but I'm at least learning a few people's positions. I just wish Fox News was a quality news service/site. I can't watch the entire debate in one video. In fact, I can't watch the entire debate. They have it broken up into pieces which don't follow each other exactly. Portions are missing, one part 2 video was just a duplicate of the part 1 video, and many descriptions had spelling/grammar errors. That's not even mentioning the crappy moderators and questions.
I cringed every time I heard Giuliani speak, even though he did have a couple good points. Actually, everyone except Sam Brownback had at least one good point. So, on the Republican side, I'm now stuck between Ron Paul, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson.
Fred Thompson hasn't been in the race long enough for me to know what his positions are, so he will remain in the undecided column. Mitt Romney has some nice things to say, but there's the recent controversy about his campaign staff and illegal activities - I will again reserve judgment for now. Mike Huckabee has my support for the Fair Tax plan, but I worry about some of his other issues, like abortion and gay marriage (among the reasons why I don't call myself a Republican).
John McCain did very well in the debates, but I didn't feel like he answered any tough questions, or answer with any real details. So, he did very well, but didn't provide any information. Until he does, there's nothing of substance to believe him on. Speaking of belief, Ron Paul remains the only candidate so far that makes me believe he's telling the truth. One of his major problems, I think, is that he has detailed stances on all his issues. It's like when I took tests in school and I'd answer each question very thoroughly, but run out of time and leave some blank. He doesn't have the option of leaving some blank, but isn't given enough time to fully answer questions, either. I would love to see him answer some detailed questions about a number of issues.
For instance, he's talked extensively about economic issues and foreign policy issues. I haven't heard him talk about all the plans for handling the effects of eliminating many of these governmental functions. He wants to eliminate the income tax and reduce spending (yay!), but wants to do so by eliminated the Department of Education (in addition to a few intelligence bureaucracies and the IRS, which I'm mostly in favor of). I'm wondering how he envisions education happening, and if left up to the states, how he plans on that being funded. I'd like to know exactly what he expects to happen in Iraq after a rapid withdrawal of forces. Most Democrats need to answer this question more thoroughly, too.
Among the Republicans, I like Paul's views on gay marriage and abortion the best so far: Gay marriage isn't the real issue after we start treating human beings as human beings, regardless of individual attributes, and leave abortion up to the states. In fact, Paul thinks most things should be left up to the states. Which is good in a lot of ways, but I want to hear his answer on what happens when people have motivation to move to a particular state that allows them to live the life they want. This would seem to lead to a segregated population (that portion of the population that can afford to move, anyway), makes buying a house a riskier proposition tied to political futures, and changes state governments' focus to passing laws that result in a larger population in order to get more tax revenue to spend. We'll switch from Red and Blue states to gay and straight states, pro life and pro choice states, war and peace states, druggie and straight-edge states, etc. Some of the unity of a strong central government is a good thing.
So, it's a good thing there's more time before I have to decide who to support, because I need it. Of course, who I support at this stage makes little difference since Kansas has no primary. Oh well.
Like tonight, while I'm watching the New Hampshire Republican Debate I missed earlier. It's a bit sad at times, but I'm at least learning a few people's positions. I just wish Fox News was a quality news service/site. I can't watch the entire debate in one video. In fact, I can't watch the entire debate. They have it broken up into pieces which don't follow each other exactly. Portions are missing, one part 2 video was just a duplicate of the part 1 video, and many descriptions had spelling/grammar errors. That's not even mentioning the crappy moderators and questions.
I cringed every time I heard Giuliani speak, even though he did have a couple good points. Actually, everyone except Sam Brownback had at least one good point. So, on the Republican side, I'm now stuck between Ron Paul, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson.
Fred Thompson hasn't been in the race long enough for me to know what his positions are, so he will remain in the undecided column. Mitt Romney has some nice things to say, but there's the recent controversy about his campaign staff and illegal activities - I will again reserve judgment for now. Mike Huckabee has my support for the Fair Tax plan, but I worry about some of his other issues, like abortion and gay marriage (among the reasons why I don't call myself a Republican).
John McCain did very well in the debates, but I didn't feel like he answered any tough questions, or answer with any real details. So, he did very well, but didn't provide any information. Until he does, there's nothing of substance to believe him on. Speaking of belief, Ron Paul remains the only candidate so far that makes me believe he's telling the truth. One of his major problems, I think, is that he has detailed stances on all his issues. It's like when I took tests in school and I'd answer each question very thoroughly, but run out of time and leave some blank. He doesn't have the option of leaving some blank, but isn't given enough time to fully answer questions, either. I would love to see him answer some detailed questions about a number of issues.
For instance, he's talked extensively about economic issues and foreign policy issues. I haven't heard him talk about all the plans for handling the effects of eliminating many of these governmental functions. He wants to eliminate the income tax and reduce spending (yay!), but wants to do so by eliminated the Department of Education (in addition to a few intelligence bureaucracies and the IRS, which I'm mostly in favor of). I'm wondering how he envisions education happening, and if left up to the states, how he plans on that being funded. I'd like to know exactly what he expects to happen in Iraq after a rapid withdrawal of forces. Most Democrats need to answer this question more thoroughly, too.
Among the Republicans, I like Paul's views on gay marriage and abortion the best so far: Gay marriage isn't the real issue after we start treating human beings as human beings, regardless of individual attributes, and leave abortion up to the states. In fact, Paul thinks most things should be left up to the states. Which is good in a lot of ways, but I want to hear his answer on what happens when people have motivation to move to a particular state that allows them to live the life they want. This would seem to lead to a segregated population (that portion of the population that can afford to move, anyway), makes buying a house a riskier proposition tied to political futures, and changes state governments' focus to passing laws that result in a larger population in order to get more tax revenue to spend. We'll switch from Red and Blue states to gay and straight states, pro life and pro choice states, war and peace states, druggie and straight-edge states, etc. Some of the unity of a strong central government is a good thing.
So, it's a good thing there's more time before I have to decide who to support, because I need it. Of course, who I support at this stage makes little difference since Kansas has no primary. Oh well.
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